Insider Overnight Poll:

A Tight Battle In North Carolina

(5/6/08) The final InsiderAdvantage / Majority Opinion Research poll of the North Carolina Democratic Primary suggests a tight battle between Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton. The survey of 774 registered likely voters in the Tuesday’s contest was conducted the evening of May 5. It is weighted for age, race, and gender. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3%.

The results:

Obama: 47%
Clinton: 43%
Undecided: 10%

InsiderAdvantage’s Matt Towery: “This race is going to be closer than most experts expected. If the African-American vote is 35% or higher, then I expect Sen. Obama to win, most likely by a 52%-to-48% margin. If white voters have turned out at a higher than expected level, thus driving the black percentage overall closer to the 31-32% level, then the race could be up for grabs. White voters in the poll crossed the margin number for Clinton of 60%-plus for the first time. But the ‘Unaffiliated Voters’ and voters in the age group of 45-to-64 (who previously leaned Clinton) are the two demographic groups keeping Obama ahead of the game. This race really is about turnout and the higher it is, the more likely we will see a closer than expected finish.”

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