Can Democrats Return To Power In Georgia? Poll Shows State Is More Open To That Possibility Than Many Suspect

(6/6/08) A new InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Survey suggests that Georgia, like many Southern states, might be more open-minded than many assume to the possibility of Democrats returning to power.

As speculation grows over potential candidates to replace incumbent Gov. Sonny Perdue, InsiderAdvantage conducted a statewide survey of 522 registered voters. The poll pitted former Gov. Roy Barnes (who’s being pushed by some to seek a return to the governor’s office) against Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle, who currently is the highest ranking Republican elected official rumored to be considering a 2010 race.

Barnes has not indicated he would consider running and Cagle has yet to make clear his intentions. But according to sources, Cagle is expected to announce an exploratory committee in a matter.

The poll shows that if the race were held today, Barnes would be leading Cagle in the race, with a large segment of voters undecided.

The results were:

Barnes: 40%
Cagle: 36%
Undecided/No Opinion: 24%

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

“This indicates the impact of the attention this presidential contest is receiving on future races,” said InsiderAdvantage CEO Matt Towery, who serves as political analyst for WSB-TV.

He continued: “Former Governor Barnes has been out of office going on eight years, so his name identification is obviously not as strong as it was, and the office of lieutenant governor really doesn’t allow anyone to gain widespread name identification. However, these are two of the better-known names that might be recruited into or decide to enter a potential governor’s race.

“This survey shows that while both men receive almost all of their respective party’s vote, the critical independent vote, which in recent years has been trending towards Republicans, is split three-ways, with about one-third supporting Barnes, one-third supporting Cagle, and one-third still undecided.

“What this poll tells me is that the impact being felt in local and state races around the south, as a result of the public’s dislike of the Republican White House, is making races appear more competitive in states that are assumed to be locks for the GOP.”