Insider Polling:

McCain Holds Small Lead In Georgia; Nunn On Ticket With Obama Could Tip To Dems

By Matt Towery
Southern Political Report

Copyright © 2008 Creators Syndicate

(7/4/08) An InsiderAdvantage/ PollPosition survey conducted with our research partner Majority Opinion Research shows John McCain and Barack Obama locked in a tight race in Georgia, the ninth largest electoral prize in the nation.

The poll also indicates that should Obama choose former U.S. Sen. Sam Nunn of Georgia as his running mate, Obama’s chances improve of winning Georgia in November.

The poll was conducted statewide on Tuesday among 502 registered Georgia voters like to vote in November. It was weighted for age, race, gender and political affiliation. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.3 percent.

Q. 1 Georgia Presidential ballot:

McCain: 46%
Obama: 44%
Barr: 4%
Undecided: 6%

Q. 2 “If Barack Obama selected Georgia’s former U.S. Senator Sam Nunn as his Vice Presidential running mate, would you be more or less likely to vote for Barack Obama?”

More likely: 51%
Less likely: 11%
No difference/Undecided: 38%

Analysis: Georgia, which has one of the highest African-American voting age populations in the nation along with an unusually young voter age population, remains the hidden battleground of the 2008 campaign.

The Obama campaign is saturating television in the state, clearly believing that the 15 electoral votes in Georgia are up for grabs. It’s a credit to John McCain’s personal favorable ratings in the state (which are high) that he has continued to cling to this lead despite having little media presence.

The deal breaker could be former United States Senator Sam Nunn, who left the Senate in the mid-1990s. Nunn, known as a top expert of foreign policy, has relatively low name identification in his home state after 11 years out of direct political circulation. But should he receive the nomination, Nunn would almost immediately become known in his home state as a former senator, and the survey shows that with such knowledge, a majority of Georgians say they are more likely to vote for Obama.

However, that does not equate to an actual vote for Obama. To determine the actual impact on the vote, one would need a direct comparison. Some suggest, with Florida looking more likely to go McCain, a Barack-Obama/Sam Nunn vs. John McCain/Sonny Perdue survey. Perdue had been mentioned as a potential VP nominee earlier in the year. Perhaps Nunn and Perdue are back on the radar screens.