Overnight Poll: Clinton 49%, Obama 42%, 8% Undecided

(4/22/08) The final InsiderAdvantage / Majority Opinion Survey of the Pennsylvania primary conducted Monday evening, April 21, shows Hillary Clinton holding her lead, but the margin of victory narrowing a bit.

The survey included 712 registered, likely voters in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary and was weighted for age, race, and gender. The margin of error was 3.6%.

Hillary Clinton: 49%
Barack Obama: 42%
Undecided: 9 %

InsiderAdvantage’s Matt Towery:

"The undecided vote moved slowly downward between our Sunday night survey and our Monday night round of polling. Since both samples had virtually the same number of respondents, it is fair to conclude that the last minute voters were moving more in Obama’s direction.

"That said, from my experience, if a voter is still undecided the day before a race, they likely are not voting. If I had to guess, and it would be a guess, I would see this as a 53% or 54% Clinton win. The only way this could be much closer is if this race has been so intense that the undecideds in the poll truly are undecided and they continue to break for Obama.

"Were that the case, Clinton would win by a much smaller margin, perhaps as little as two or three percent. Obama’s team is betting on this scenario, while Clinton’s folks are hoping that, as far as the undecideds that remain, they will behave as usual and not vote. We shall see.”

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