Dr. Charles Bullock:

Thinning GOP Ranks May Make Gubernatorial Bid Attractive For Isakson

By Dr. Charles Bullock

(11/30/07) To the extent that Washington’s chattering class gets beyond speculating about the identity of the next president, they ponder the outcome of the 2008 congressional elections. Can Republicans reclaim either the House or the Senate? Will Democrats expand on their narrow majorities? What do the generic polls that ask voters whether they are inclined to vote for a Democrat or a Republican for the House show?

Rather than relying on the generic polls that do not factor in considerations like incumbency – and with more than 95 percent of incumbents usually winning reelection to the House this is a major omission – there is a better indicator of what those who best understand congressional elections anticipate. Which partisans choose to retire?

Members of the minority party retire at higher rates than do their colleagues who belong to the majority. Retirement gets hastened in a party that has recently lost majority status if the prospects of regaining a majority appear poor.

We saw this in Georgia once Republicans took control of the General Assembly. In exiting the House, Democrats fell in behind leaders like Speaker Terry Coleman, Majority Leader Larry Walker, Appropriations Chair Tom Buck, and Judiciary Chair Tom Bordeaux. Administrative Service Chair Gail Buckner left the House to run for Secretary of State while Retirements Chair Bill Cummings explored firsthand the subject he had studied for years as a committee chair.

The buoyant Republicans have seen few of their number opt out of the legislature. Republican legislators are reluctant to walk away from the opportunities that they awaited for so long.

Similar patterns of behavior are now occurring in Congress. After having enjoyed a dozen years in the majority, Republicans are having problems adjusting to their rejection in 2006. Of the 22 Republican senators whose terms end in 2008, five have announced their retirements. (One, Larry Craig, might have sought a fourth term but for his arrest in a men’s room.)

None of the dozen Democrats up for reelection in 2008 has opted out. Even New Jersey’s Frank Lautenberg, who turns 82 in January and who retired in 2000 only to be called back to rescue the Democratic Party from the Robert Torricelli scandal, seems poised to go for another term. (Does he aspire to match Strom Thurmond who, as part of the GOP majority, stayed in the Senate to celebrate his 100th birthday?) Nor has Tim Johnson, still recovering from a stroke, indicated hesitancy to confront the rigors of a campaign.

Some congressional Republicans see the future as so bleak that they are bolting for the door before their terms are over. Denny Hastert, who served as House Speaker longer than any previous Republican bid farewell to his congressional colleagues earlier this week. Senator Trent Lott, currently the Minority Whip, plans to leave before the end of 2007, just halfway through his current term.

If the discouraging prospects for retaking the majority in the near future persist, it could impact Georgia. A growing number of supporters are calling on Sen. Johnny Isakson to come home and run for governor in 2010. If the Republican ranks in the Senate are thinned in 2008, as now appears likely, becoming governor of Georgia and in a position to shape public policy would be an appealing alternative to sitting on the sidelines in the Senate.