Latest SC Polling: Four GOP Candidates Grouped Closely In Head-To-Head Matchup

(5/24/07) The latest Insider Advantage survey of a hypothetical 2008 Republican presidential primary in South Carolina shows four of the potential candidates closely grouped in a head-to-head contest. The telephone survey of registered voters (who stated that if the Republican primary were held today that they would vote in the primary) has a sample size of 503 and was conducted May 21st through May 22nd and is weighted for age, race, and gender. It has an error rate of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Q. Of the following potential candidates, if the primary were held today, which one candidate would you vote for?

Giulliani - 18%
McCain -17%
Gingrich- 17%
Thompson -13%
Romney - 8%
Huckabee- 6%
Hunter- 3%
Brownback -3%
Gilmore – 1%
Paul – 1%
Undecided/Don’t Know -13%

Analysis from Matt Towery, nationally syndicated columnist (Creators) and CEO of InsiderAdvantage and the Southern Political Report:

“Our survey conducted in South Carolina on May 11th, created some stir among those who watched the polls in major early primary states. In that survey, we showed John McCain with 9% of the vote. In a prior survey by InsiderAdvantage, McCain had been statistically tied with Giuliani for the lead. Clearly, whether it was a post-debate bump or an aberration in our May 11th survey, Senator McCain is again statistically tied with Giuliani as well as Gingrich. Fred Thompson is not far behind at 13%. Long time political editor for the State Newspaper and current editor of our South Carolina Insider daily website Lee Bandy, reviewed these numbers with me today. Lee feels that this is an accurate reflection of where the South Carolina vote is currently. Keep in mind that several polls have Senator McCain leading by as much as 13 points (American Research Group), while others show the race a relative dead heat between McCain and Giuliani (Zogby: 22% for McCain and 19% for Giuliani). The InsiderAdvantage survey continues to be the only major poll showing Giuliani with a slight lead. Our take on this can be found in a fairly substantial lead which Giuliani enjoys in the critical age group of 45-64 years of age. Additionally, Giuliani enjoys a slight lead among female voters. Gingrich’s showing in South Carolina comes as no surprise to Bandy. The strength of Gingrich can be found among male voters, where 22% favor Gingrich with Thompson the next closest at 18%.

“We are the first to admit when a survey such has the May 11th poll appears to be out of line. However, those watching the polls should keep several things in mind. First, our numbers indicate that this is an extraordinarily close race. Secondly, these numbers come after the South Carolina debate, which may have refocused attention on the frontrunners. Most importantly, as Mr. Bandy points out, “People in South Carolina know they have a long time to wait and I wouldn’t be surprised if these numbers shift back and forth numerous times. People in South Carolina really aren’t as interested right now as the media would lead you to believe.”