Barnes Prohibitive Favorite Among Dems For Now

(5/22/09) If he decides to enter the race, former Gov. Roy Barnes is the prohibitive favorite in the Democratic primary – for now – according to a new InsiderAdvantage / Majority Opinion Research poll conducted for WSB-TV.

The poll was conducted Thursday among 404 individuals who said that if the primary were held today, they would vote in the Democratic primary. The findings are weighted for age, race and gender. The margin of error is plus or minus 5 percent.

The results:

Roy Barnes, 38%
Thurbert Baker, 3%
David Poythress, 2%
DuBose Porter, 2%
Other, 2%
Undecided 53%

“This far out, it’s a measure of name ID,” said analyst Matt Towery, who is chairman and CEO of InsiderAdvantage. “It really should not come as a huge surprise. As I’ve noted before, there is a difference between the way we have to poll for TV and newspapers and the way some other pollsters poll – say, those working for political candidates. We are not allowed to use titles, such as “former governor” or “attorney general” or “state representative” in describing candidates. The reason is, you have to poll it as it would appear on the ballot. All of these candidates would be higher (in the latest poll) if there was a description placed on them.”

He continued:

“In light of the low numbers for most state officials on the Republican side, this is very typical of newspaper and TV-type polling this far out. Secretary of State Handel was at 10 percent (on the GOP side) and Attorney General Thurbert Baker is at 3 percent (on the Democratic side.) Looking at Baker’s 3 percent, I don’t think that’s so surprising because Baker has never been what I would call a ‘press hog’ – he has never sought the limelight. It’s indicative of someone not in front of the public all the time. Most people don’t know who the attorney general is. So there’s a lot of room there.”

Also, Towery said:

“It is clear if Roy Barnes runs he is the prohibitive favorite. That said, in the crosstabs he is taking virtually all of the decided African-American vote because most African-Americans who said they would be voting don’t know who Thurbert Baker is. Once they come to know, it’s presumable he might take a portion of that away. On the other side, Barnes is getting the vast majority of the decided white vote. And it’s entirely possible that with 50 percent of whites undecided, once they realize who Barnes is and he is reintroduced, he’d pick up more of a share of the white vote.”

He continued:

“Barnes has the least amount of work to do to reintroduce himself to the Georgia voters. In the Democratic primary, he’s doing 17 points better than the leader in the Republican primary, John Oxendine, who is at 21 percent.”

He concluded:

“I still think this shows Barnes is a force to be reckoned with if he decides to enter the race. Some might say, ‘He was governor and he’s only at 37 percent.” But incumbents lose their name ID at a rate of 5 to 7 percent in the first four years, then it’s 10 percent after that. After 8 to 10 years, most people don’t really remember a governor who served that long ago. Barnes is doing better than some governors eight years out. Keeping his name in the news has helped with his name ID.”